Four games. Three points. Two clubs. One title.
The 2025-26 Premier League season has delivered exactly what football fans live for: a title race that will not be settled until the final weeks, possibly the final day, of the campaign. As of 1 May 2026, Arsenal sit top of the table on 73 points, with Manchester City breathing down their necks on 70.
Every remaining fixture now carries the weight of a cup final. One slip from either club, and the trophy changes hands.
This is your complete breakdown of the Premier League title race: where each club stands, what their remaining fixtures look like, who holds the advantage, and what history tells us about how these things usually end.
The Current Standings
With four matches remaining for both title contenders, this is how the top of the Premier League table looks:
| Position | Club | W | D | L | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Arsenal | 22 | 7 | 5 | 73 |
| 2nd | Manchester City | 21 | 7 | 5 | 70 |
| 3rd | Manchester United | 17 | 10 | 7 | 61 |
The gap between Arsenal in first and Manchester United in third is 12 points. The title is a two-horse race. The rest of the table is competing for a different conversation entirely.
Arsenal's Run-In: Winnable but Demanding
Arsenal arrive at this decisive stretch of the season on the back of consecutive wins, including a narrow but important 1-0 victory over Newcastle United at the Emirates on 25 April, a result that kept their three-point buffer intact heading into May.
Arsenal's remaining fixtures:
- vs Fulham (H) - Saturday 2 May (68.6% win probability)
- vs [TBC] (A) - Gameweek 36
- vs [TBC] (H) - Gameweek 37
- vs [TBC] (A) - Gameweek 38
Saturday's home match against Fulham is the most immediately significant. Arsenal are strong favourites at 68.6% to take all three points from this fixture, and a win would extend their lead to six points if City drop any result at Everton on Monday.
The challenge for Mikel Arteta's side is not just about picking up points. It is about managing the mental burden of knowing that any lapse will be instantly capitalised on. Arsenal have experienced this pressure before, in 2022-23 and 2023-24, and lost the title in both campaigns. The question of whether this group has the composure to hold on when it matters most is the defining narrative of their season.
What works in their favour: the Emirates is a fortress this season, and their defensive record has been elite, conceding just five league defeats from 34 played. This is a team built to grind results when the stakes are highest.
Manchester City's Run-In: Momentum and a Critical Monday Night
Manchester City arrive at this stretch of the season with momentum of their own. Their 1-0 win at Burnley on Wednesday 22 April was exactly the kind of professional away result that title-winning teams produce routinely. Burnley, already deep in a relegation battle with just 20 points from 34 games, offered limited resistance.
Manchester City's remaining fixtures:
- vs Everton (A) - Monday 4 May (64.6% win probability)
- vs [TBC] (H) - Gameweek 36
- vs [TBC] (A) - Gameweek 37
- vs [TBC] (H) - Gameweek 38
City's visit to Everton on Monday 4 May is the fixture their title hopes hinge on most immediately. At 64.6% win probability, they are clear favourites, and a win would reduce the gap to Arsenal to three points, assuming Arsenal beat Fulham the day before. If Arsenal win and City win, the race remains exactly where it is. If Arsenal win and City drop points, the title is functionally Arsenal's.
The reverse scenario, Arsenal dropping points against Fulham while City beat Everton on Monday, would close the gap to zero and put the race on a knife edge.
Pep Guardiola's City are the most experienced title-chasing team in English football history. Under his management, they have won six Premier League titles. They do not panic. They do not make unforced errors in the final stretch. That experience is their greatest asset.
Key Recent Results That Shaped the Race
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle (25 April): A narrow, nervy win at the Emirates. Newcastle caused problems but Arsenal held firm and took the points when it mattered. The kind of result Arteta's side could not afford to drop.
Man City 1-0 Burnley (22 April): Routine, professional, efficient. City did exactly what was required of a team in a title race. No unnecessary risks, three points secured.
Nottingham Forest 5-0 Sunderland (24 April): Not directly relevant to the title, but a reminder of how the bottom half of the table can produce surprising results. The remaining fixtures for both title contenders include opponents who have nothing to lose.
Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace (25 April): Liverpool continue to perform, sitting fourth on 58 points. They are no longer a title threat but remain relevant as opponents in the closing weeks.
The Mathematics: What Arsenal Need to Win the Title
With 73 points from 34 games and four matches remaining, Arsenal's maximum possible points total is 85.
Manchester City's maximum possible total from 70 points is also 82.
This means: if Arsenal win all four remaining games, Manchester City cannot catch them regardless of their own results. Arsenal are in the driving seat. The title is theirs to lose.
The most likely title-winning scenario for Arsenal: three wins and one draw from their remaining four games, which would take them to 82 points. City would need to win all four of their games to match that, and the goal difference would then determine the outcome.
Arsenal's goal difference currently stands significantly ahead of City's, a reflection of their dominant home form this season. If the points finish level, Arsenal would almost certainly take the title on that basis.
The realistic danger zone for Arsenal is a sequence of two draws and two wins, resulting in 79 points. City would then need three wins and a draw or better to overhaul them.
What History Says About Leads at This Stage
A three-point lead with four games to go is not insurmountable, but it is historically very strong.
In Premier League history, teams leading by three points or more with four games remaining have won the title in the overwhelming majority of cases. The notable exception, and one that haunts Arsenal's fanbase specifically, is their own 2023 collapse when they led Manchester City in the closing weeks and watched their lead evaporate across a brutal run of fixtures.
The difference in 2026 is the quality and consistency of this Arsenal squad. They have accumulated 73 points from 34 games, a points-per-game ratio that, if maintained, would historically be enough to win the title most seasons. Their defensive resilience, with only five losses in the campaign, suggests a team that does not capitulate under pressure.
But City are City. They have engineered comebacks from positions that looked more hopeless than this. Believing the race is over before the final whistle is sounded would be premature.
The Dark Horses: United, Liverpool, and the Top Four Battle
While the title race is a two-team affair, the battle for the remaining Champions League places is generating its own drama.
Manchester United sit third on 61 points, 12 clear of the title but firmly in the Champions League qualification picture. Their 2-1 home win over Brentford on 27 April was a statement: this is a United side with genuine ambition for next season.
Liverpool are fourth on 58 points, level with Aston Villa on points but ahead on goal difference. Villa lost 1-0 to Fulham on 25 April, a result that adds pressure to their European qualification hopes. Manchester United face Liverpool at Old Trafford on Sunday 3 May, a fixture with enormous implications for both clubs' Champions League ambitions regardless of the title picture.
Brighton in sixth on 50 points and Bournemouth in seventh on 49 points are involved in their own race for European qualification spots. The final weeks of the Premier League campaign rarely produce a quiet afternoon.
Relegation: Already Confirmed and Still at Stake
At the bottom, Wolverhampton Wanderers are almost certainly down. With just 17 points from 34 games and only four matches remaining, their maximum possible total of 29 points is unlikely to save them in even the most optimistic scenario.
Burnley, on 20 points, are in the same dire position. Their 3-1 loss to Leeds United on 1 May confirms that their return to the Championship is a matter of when, not if.
Tottenham Hotspur, on 34 points and sitting 18th, are in genuine danger. Their 1-0 win at Wolverhampton on 25 April was important, but four points separating them from safety with four games to play makes every remaining match an exercise in anxiety.
Weekend Fixtures to Watch (2-4 May 2026)
This weekend's schedule is packed with significance at both ends of the table:
Saturday 2 May:
- Newcastle vs Brighton (3 PM WAT)
- Arsenal vs Fulham (5:30 PM WAT) - Title race critical
Sunday 3 May:
- Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (2 PM WAT)
- Manchester United vs Liverpool (3:30 PM WAT) - Top four battle
- Aston Villa vs Tottenham (7 PM WAT) - European and relegation implications
Monday 4 May:
- Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest (3 PM WAT)
- Everton vs Manchester City (8 PM WAT) - Title race critical
The two fixtures highlighted in bold are the ones that will define the shape of the title race going into the final three gameweeks.
Conclusion
The 2025-26 Premier League title race has everything: experience against hunger, defensive resilience against attacking firepower, history against the desperate desire to rewrite it.
Arsenal have the lead. Manchester City have the pedigree. Four games will decide which of those advantages matters more.
If Arsenal win on Saturday against Fulham and City fail to win at Everton on Monday, the Gunners will be within touching distance of their first Premier League title since 2004. If City win and Arsenal slip, we go to the final weeks with nothing separated but hope.
Check back for live updates throughout the weekend. This title race is not finished.
All standings, results, and win probabilities are sourced from live data as of 1 May 2026. Figures are correct at time of publication.
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